Calculations: All probabilities and seedings are computed
based on

(1) 10,000 or more scenarios where each scenario
is one complete regular season of games.

(2) Games that have not been played are "played" by using a
random number generator, the strength of the opponents based
on a power rating for each team. Power ratings are generated
from Las Vegas odds or a power rating computer program sim-
ilar to the Sagarin ratings. So if team A plays team B
random numbers between 0.0 and 1.0 are determined for each
game and their scores are determined by their power ratings
and this random generator. The higher the power rating, the
higher the score for that team.

(3) NFL playoff selection rules and in particular, the tie-
breaking rules. This is a complicated set of rules where the
rules are simple at first and more complicated as one moves
down the list until there is a clear winner for teams that
initially have identical records.
    

Best Future

This probability is based on a team winning its remaining games. teamname 1st 2nd 3rd 4th wc 1 wc 2 total Arizona 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.124 0.047 0.345 0.525 Atlanta 0.000 0.033 0.159 0.239 0.172 0.325 0.928 Baltimore 0.990 0.010 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 Buffalo 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 Carolina 0.002 0.100 0.399 0.428 0.038 0.029 0.996 Chicago 0.333 0.352 0.091 0.003 0.218 0.003 1.000 Cincinnati 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.000 0.017 0.023 Cleveland 0.001 0.057 0.306 0.111 0.153 0.308 0.936 Dallas 0.821 0.173 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 Denver 0.132 0.468 0.229 0.004 0.151 0.016 1.000 Detroit 0.000 0.001 0.014 0.034 0.248 0.464 0.761 Green Bay 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 Houston 0.110 0.431 0.372 0.087 0.000 0.000 1.000 Indianapolis 0.091 0.397 0.416 0.096 0.000 0.000 1.000 Jacksonville 0.001 0.089 0.348 0.408 0.071 0.077 0.994 Kansas City 0.945 0.054 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 Miami 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 Minnesota 0.886 0.075 0.003 0.000 0.036 0.000 1.000 New England 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 New Orleans 0.893 0.107 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 N.Y. Giants 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.013 0.000 0.015 0.028 N.Y. Jets 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.058 0.308 0.368 Oakland 0.527 0.420 0.042 0.000 0.011 0.000 1.000 Philadelphia 0.348 0.486 0.126 0.003 0.037 0.000 1.000 Pittsburgh 0.352 0.555 0.050 0.000 0.043 0.000 1.000 Los Angeles Chargers 0.544 0.412 0.044 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 Seattle 0.396 0.417 0.104 0.005 0.078 0.000 1.000 San Francisco 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 Los Angeles Rams 0.535 0.407 0.045 0.000 0.013 0.000 1.000 Tampa Bay 0.000 0.007 0.085 0.184 0.157 0.355 0.788 Tennessee 0.001 0.072 0.385 0.542 0.000 0.000 1.000 Washington 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 11.908 5.123 3.236 2.287 1.531 2.263 26.348