Calculations: All probabilities and seedings are computed
based on

(1) 10,000 or more scenarios where each scenario
is one complete regular season of games.

(2) Games that have not been played are "played" by using a
random number generator, the strength of the opponents based
on a power rating for each team. Power ratings are generated
from Las Vegas odds or a power rating computer program sim-
ilar to the Sagarin ratings. So if team A plays team B
random numbers between 0.0 and 1.0 are determined for each
game and their scores are determined by their power ratings
and this random generator. The higher the power rating, the
higher the score for that team.

(3) NFL playoff selection rules and in particular, the tie-
breaking rules. This is a complicated set of rules where the
rules are simple at first and more complicated as one moves
down the list until there is a clear winner for teams that
initially have identical records.
    
    
 

Current Leader

This probability is based on current records. P01 AFC seed 1 current leader 19 New England P02 AFC seed 2 current leader 3 Baltimore P03 AFC seed 3 current leader 16 Kansas City P04 AFC seed 4 current leader 14 Indianapolis P05 AFC seed 5 current leader 4 Buffalo P06 AFC seed 6 current leader 26 Los Angeles Chargers P07 NFC seed 1 current leader 12 Green Bay P08 NFC seed 2 current leader 28 San Francisco P09 NFC seed 3 current leader 20 New Orleans P10 NFC seed 4 current leader 9 Dallas P11 NFC seed 5 current leader 18 Minnesota P12 NFC seed 6 current leader 27 Seattle