Calculations: All probabilities and seedings are computed based on (1) 10,000 or more scenarios where each scenario is one complete regular season of games. (2) Games that have not been played are "played" by using a random number generator, the strength of the opponents based on a power rating for each team. Power ratings are generated from Las Vegas odds or a power rating computer program sim- ilar to the Sagarin ratings. So if team A plays team B random numbers between 0.0 and 1.0 are determined for each game and their scores are determined by their power ratings and this random generator. The higher the power rating, the higher the score for that team. (3) NFL playoff selection rules and in particular, the tie- breaking rules. This is a complicated set of rules where the rules are simple at first and more complicated as one moves down the list until there is a clear winner for teams that initially have identical records.
Current LeaderThis probability is based on current records. P01 AFC seed 1 current leader 3 Baltimore P02 AFC seed 2 current leader 16 Kansas City P03 AFC seed 3 current leader 19 New England P04 AFC seed 4 current leader 31 Tennessee P05 AFC seed 5 current leader 4 Buffalo P06 AFC seed 6 current leader 25 Pittsburgh P07 NFC seed 1 current leader 12 Green Bay P08 NFC seed 2 current leader 20 New Orleans P09 NFC seed 3 current leader 28 San Francisco P10 NFC seed 4 current leader 24 Philadelphia P11 NFC seed 5 current leader 18 Minnesota P12 NFC seed 6 current leader 9 Dallas