Calculations: All probabilities and seedings are computed based on (1) 10,000 or more scenarios where each scenario is one complete regular season of games. (2) Games that have not been played are "played" by using a random number generator, the strength of the opponents based on a power rating for each team. Power ratings are generated from Las Vegas odds or a power rating computer program sim- ilar to the Sagarin ratings. So if team A plays team B random numbers between 0.0 and 1.0 are determined for each game and their scores are determined by their power ratings and this random generator. The higher the power rating, the higher the score for that team. (3) NFL playoff selection rules and in particular, the tie- breaking rules. This is a complicated set of rules where the rules are simple at first and more complicated as one moves down the list until there is a clear winner for teams that initially have identical records.
Probability Of Making PlayoffsThis probability is based on a team getting a 1-6 seed for its conference. If a team has clinched a playoff position than its probability is 100%. If a team has been eliminated, than its probability is 0.0%. Green Bay 96.80 New England 96.20 New Orleans 93.50 Baltimore 91.30 Dallas 91.10 San Francisco 86.20 Buffalo 86.00 Minnesota 79.30 Kansas City 75.20 Los Angeles Chargers 59.50 Indianapolis 45.10 Houston 43.20 Seattle 43.10 Pittsburgh 36.90 Philadelphia 34.80 Los Angeles Rams 33.40 Oakland 25.40 Chicago 23.20 Denver 15.00 Tennessee 13.70 Carolina 9.80 Jacksonville 8.20 Atlanta 5.40 Cleveland 3.90 Detroit 1.70 Tampa Bay 1.00 Arizona 0.70 N.Y. Jets 0.30 Cincinnati 0.10 Miami 0.00 N.Y. Giants 0.00 Washington 0.00