Calculations: All probabilities and seedings are computed
based on

(1) 10,000 or more scenarios where each scenario
is one complete regular season of games.

(2) Games that have not been played are "played" by using a
random number generator, the strength of the opponents based
on a power rating for each team. Power ratings are generated
from Las Vegas odds or a power rating computer program sim-
ilar to the Sagarin ratings. So if team A plays team B
random numbers between 0.0 and 1.0 are determined for each
game and their scores are determined by their power ratings
and this random generator. The higher the power rating, the
higher the score for that team.

(3) NFL playoff selection rules and in particular, the tie-
breaking rules. This is a complicated set of rules where the
rules are simple at first and more complicated as one moves
down the list until there is a clear winner for teams that
initially have identical records.
    
     
 

Probable Leader

This probability is based on probable leaders. AFC seed 1 probable leader 3 Baltimore AFC seed 2 probable leader 4 Buffalo AFC seed 3 probable leader 10 Denver AFC seed 4 probable leader 14 Indianapolis AFC seed 5 probable leader 19 New England AFC seed 6 probable leader 16 Kansas City NFC seed 1 probable leader 12 Green Bay NFC seed 2 probable leader 20 New Orleans NFC seed 3 probable leader 28 San Francisco NFC seed 4 probable leader 24 Philadelphia NFC seed 5 probable leader 18 Minnesota NFC seed 6 probable leader 27 Seattle