Calculations: All probabilities and seedings are computed based on (1) 10,000 or more scenarios where each scenario is one complete regular season of games. (2) Games that have not been played are "played" by using a random number generator, the strength of the opponents based on a power rating for each team. Power ratings are generated from Las Vegas odds or a power rating computer program sim- ilar to the Sagarin ratings. So if team A plays team B random numbers between 0.0 and 1.0 are determined for each game and their scores are determined by their power ratings and this random generator. The higher the power rating, the higher the score for that team. (3) NFL playoff selection rules and in particular, the tie- breaking rules. This is a complicated set of rules where the rules are simple at first and more complicated as one moves down the list until there is a clear winner for teams that initially have identical records.
Probable LeaderThis probability is based on probable leaders. AFC seed 1 probable leader 3 Baltimore AFC seed 2 probable leader 16 Kansas City AFC seed 3 probable leader 19 New England AFC seed 4 probable leader 31 Tennessee AFC seed 5 probable leader 4 Buffalo AFC seed 6 probable leader 25 Pittsburgh NFC seed 1 probable leader 12 Green Bay NFC seed 2 probable leader 20 New Orleans NFC seed 3 probable leader 28 San Francisco NFC seed 4 probable leader 24 Philadelphia NFC seed 5 probable leader 18 Minnesota NFC seed 6 probable leader 9 Dallas