Calculations: All probabilities and seedings are computed
based on

(1) 10,000 or more scenarios where each scenario
is one complete regular season of games.

(2) Games that have not been played are "played" by using a
random number generator, the strength of the opponents based
on a power rating for each team. Power ratings are generated
from Las Vegas odds or a power rating computer program sim-
ilar to the Sagarin ratings. So if team A plays team B
random numbers between 0.0 and 1.0 are determined for each
game and their scores are determined by their power ratings
and this random generator. The higher the power rating, the
higher the score for that team.

(3) NFL playoff selection rules and in particular, the tie-
breaking rules. This is a complicated set of rules where the
rules are simple at first and more complicated as one moves
down the list until there is a clear winner for teams that
initially have identical records.
    

Predicted Future

This probability is based on a team winning games it is favored to win. teamname 1st 2nd 3rd 4th wc 1 wc 2 total Arizona 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.001 0.003 0.007 Atlanta 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.014 0.002 0.033 0.054 Baltimore 0.282 0.318 0.179 0.042 0.043 0.049 0.913 Buffalo 0.201 0.109 0.043 0.010 0.369 0.128 0.860 Carolina 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.070 0.002 0.021 0.098 Chicago 0.002 0.004 0.012 0.005 0.075 0.134 0.232 Cincinnati 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 Cleveland 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.013 0.004 0.016 0.039 Dallas 0.106 0.200 0.265 0.267 0.024 0.049 0.911 Denver 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.003 0.039 0.078 0.150 Detroit 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.017 Green Bay 0.460 0.189 0.085 0.035 0.156 0.043 0.968 Houston 0.004 0.019 0.050 0.317 0.007 0.035 0.432 Indianapolis 0.002 0.011 0.061 0.355 0.003 0.019 0.451 Jacksonville 0.000 0.001 0.006 0.050 0.004 0.021 0.082 Kansas City 0.084 0.179 0.264 0.030 0.052 0.143 0.752 Miami 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Minnesota 0.067 0.075 0.042 0.022 0.423 0.164 0.793 New England 0.388 0.179 0.063 0.007 0.265 0.060 0.962 New Orleans 0.170 0.251 0.229 0.253 0.008 0.024 0.935 N.Y. Giants 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 N.Y. Jets 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.003 Oakland 0.010 0.031 0.048 0.012 0.052 0.101 0.254 Philadelphia 0.003 0.026 0.050 0.083 0.055 0.131 0.348 Pittsburgh 0.010 0.046 0.076 0.027 0.071 0.139 0.369 Los Angeles Chargers 0.014 0.097 0.182 0.016 0.090 0.196 0.595 Seattle 0.005 0.043 0.058 0.076 0.080 0.169 0.431 San Francisco 0.184 0.181 0.196 0.128 0.085 0.088 0.862 Los Angeles Rams 0.003 0.031 0.049 0.043 0.082 0.126 0.334 Tampa Bay 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.010 Tennessee 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.118 0.001 0.012 0.137 Washington 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 12.000