Calculations: All probabilities and seedings are computed based on (1) 10,000 or more scenarios where each scenario is one complete regular season of games. (2) Games that have not been played are "played" by using a random number generator, the strength of the opponents based on a power rating for each team. Power ratings are generated from Las Vegas odds or a power rating computer program sim- ilar to the Sagarin ratings. So if team A plays team B random numbers between 0.0 and 1.0 are determined for each game and their scores are determined by their power ratings and this random generator. The higher the power rating, the higher the score for that team. (3) NFL playoff selection rules and in particular, the tie- breaking rules. This is a complicated set of rules where the rules are simple at first and more complicated as one moves down the list until there is a clear winner for teams that initially have identical records.
Probability Of Winning SuperbowlThis probability is based on a team making the playoffs and winning the super bowl. New England 12.60 Dallas 9.50 Green Bay 9.50 Baltimore 9.40 New Orleans 8.50 Kansas City 7.70 Buffalo 7.30 San Francisco 7.20 Minnesota 4.50 Los Angeles Chargers 4.20 Indianapolis 3.70 Los Angeles Rams 2.80 Seattle 2.70 Houston 2.40 Pittsburgh 2.00 Oakland 1.40 Chicago 1.30 Denver 1.00 Philadelphia 0.90 Jacksonville 0.50 Atlanta 0.30 Carolina 0.20 Cleveland 0.20 Tennessee 0.20 Arizona 0.00 Cincinnati 0.00 Detroit 0.00 Miami 0.00 N.Y. Giants 0.00 N.Y. Jets 0.00 Tampa Bay 0.00 Washington 0.00