Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 Algorithm

The NCAA will reduce the number of AQ and At-large team invites
by up to 25% for all divisions for 2021

RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L [3] [4] [2] 1 Boston C Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 2 3 4 18 3 2 Denver Big East 0.00 100.00 11 7 33 16 2 3 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 0.00 100.00 14 8 16 13 2 4 Florida American 0.00 100.00 8 4 23 18 3 5 High Point Big South 0.00 100.00 38 65 18 10 8 6 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 0.00 100.00 17 9 72 12 2 7 JMU Colonial 0.00 100.00 16 26 37 12 5 8 Loyola Patriot League 0.00 100.00 10 12 61 11 3 9 Mercer Southern 0.00 100.00 45 71 69 7 8 10 Northwestern Big Ten 0.00 100.00 5 5 24 15 1 11 Robert Morris MAC 0.00 100.00 39 13 98 14 3 12 Stanford Pacific 12 0.00 100.00 9 11 52 11 1 13 Stony Brook America East 0.00 100.00 6 6 25 16 3 14 Umass Atlantic 10 0.00 100.00 12 14 31 15 3 15 UNC Atlantic Coast 0.00 100.00 1 1 10 20 1 16 Wagner Northeast 0.00 100.00 35 46 101 10 5 17 Akron MAC 0.00 0.00 96 86 95 7 8 18 Albany America East 0.00 0.00 26 33 9 11 7 19 American Patriot League 0.00 0.00 83 77 71 1 7 20 Army Patriot League 0.00 0.00 53 49 83 5 4 21 ASU Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 34 44 22 10 6 22 Binghamton America East 0.00 0.00 86 66 86 3 5 23 Boston U Patriot League 0.00 0.00 68 62 82 4 6 24 Bryant Northeast 0.00 0.00 60 63 94 7 6 25 Bucknell Patriot League 0.00 0.00 76 60 88 3 6 26 Butler Big East 0.00 0.00 99 110 64 1 11 27 California Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 94 119 29 2 16 28 Campbell Big South 0.00 0.00 67 73 77 8 7 29 Canisius Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 63 87 58 2 8 30 Central CT Northeast 0.00 0.00 104 117 87 0 13 31 Central MI MAC 0.00 0.00 61 67 85 8 6 32 Cincinnati American 0.00 0.00 52 84 14 7 10 33 Colgate Patriot League 0.00 0.00 70 55 105 5 5 34 Colorado Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 27 61 50 8 7 35 Cst Carolina Southern 0.00 0.00 42 68 43 10 7 36 Davidson Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 32 34 70 11 4 37 Delaware Colonial 0.00 0.00 100 70 91 1 5 38 Delaware St Southern 0.00 0.00 111 107 110 1 9 39 Detroit Mercy MAC 0.00 0.00 102 98 97 2 8 40 Drexel Colonial 0.00 0.00 7 15 28 13 3 41 Duke Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 15 32 6 11 8 42 Duquesne Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 62 50 80 4 5 43 E Carolina American 0.00 0.00 57 106 12 4 12 44 Elon Colonial 0.00 0.00 19 18 48 9 2 45 Fresno State MPSF 0.00 0.00 93 114 40 2 12 46 Furman Southern 0.00 0.00 46 39 54 12 4 47 GardWebb Big South 0.00 0.00 97 101 109 4 9 48 Georgetown Big East 0.00 0.00 59 78 63 6 10 49 GMU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 90 118 93 1 14 50 GWU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 77 79 89 5 7 51 Hartford America East 0.00 0.00 109 103 102 0 9 52 Hofstra Colonial 0.00 0.00 13 41 19 6 7 53 Holy Cross Patriot League 0.00 0.00 95 51 103 2 4 54 Iona Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 105 111 76 0 11 55 JHU Big Ten 0.00 0.00 48 58 41 8 7 56 Kennesaw St Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 79 102 78 4 10 57 Kent State MAC 0.00 0.00 98 108 99 5 10 58 La Salle Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 71 83 53 5 9 59 Lafayette Patriot League 0.00 0.00 108 80 96 0 6 60 Lehigh Patriot League 0.00 0.00 25 27 17 9 4 61 Liberty Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 49 69 15 10 9 62 LIU Northeast 0.00 0.00 56 52 46 9 5 63 Longwood Big South 0.00 0.00 106 115 108 3 12 64 Louisville Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 28 53 2 5 11 65 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 85 96 57 3 9 66 Marist Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 43 56 81 3 5 67 Marquette Big East 0.00 0.00 69 81 74 6 8 68 Maryland Big Ten 0.00 0.00 37 42 13 10 7 69 Merrimack Northeast 0.00 0.00 103 113 90 2 11 70 Michigan Big Ten 0.00 0.00 87 99 60 3 9 71 Monmouth NJ Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 54 48 62 8 5 72 Mt St Marys Northeast 0.00 0.00 21 28 21 13 3 73 Navy Patriot League 0.00 0.00 36 35 75 7 4 74 Niagara Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 24 40 35 8 4 75 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 4 10 20 11 7 76 ODU American 0.00 0.00 91 116 27 3 14 77 Oregon Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 82 92 44 3 8 78 OSU Big Ten 0.00 0.00 72 88 59 4 9 79 Presbyterian Big South 0.00 0.00 110 109 111 4 10 80 PSU Big Ten 0.00 0.00 74 89 45 4 9 81 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 64 72 47 5 7 82 Radford Big South 0.00 0.00 80 112 51 6 12 83 Richmond Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 41 30 79 10 2 84 Rutgers Big Ten 0.00 0.00 47 64 11 7 9 85 Sacred Heart Northeast 0.00 0.00 78 75 104 6 7 86 SDSU MPSF 0.00 0.00 73 100 39 5 9 87 Siena Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 20 16 56 11 3 88 St Bonny Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 89 104 92 2 10 89 St Francis Northeast 0.00 0.00 84 93 65 4 8 90 St Josephs Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 30 45 34 10 7 91 Stetson Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 75 85 68 1 8 92 Syracuse Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 3 2 1 17 4 93 Temple American 0.00 0.00 18 17 7 13 6 94 Towson Colonial 0.00 0.00 29 47 42 9 9 95 UC Davis MPSF 0.00 0.00 51 38 49 12 4 96 Uconn Big East 0.00 0.00 33 43 55 12 7 97 Umass-L America East 0.00 0.00 88 82 100 4 8 98 UMBC America East 0.00 0.00 50 54 38 6 6 99 UNH America East 0.00 0.00 92 76 73 4 7 100 USC Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 40 57 67 9 7 101 VA Tech Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 44 74 26 4 11 102 Vanderbilt American 0.00 0.00 22 36 8 12 7 103 VCU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 65 97 32 7 9 104 Vermont America East 0.00 0.00 58 59 66 6 6 105 Villanova Big East 0.00 0.00 55 94 36 6 11 106 Virginia Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 23 37 5 9 9 107 W&M Colonial 0.00 0.00 66 95 30 3 9 108 Winthrop Big South 0.00 0.00 81 90 84 7 8 109 Wofford Southern 0.00 0.00 107 105 106 2 9 110 Youngstown St MAC 0.00 0.00 101 91 107 2 7