Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 Algorithm

The NCAA will reduce the number of AQ and At-large team invites
by up to 25% for all divisions for 2021

RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L [3] [4] [2] 1 Boston C Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 2 2 2 18 3 2 Denver Big East 0.00 100.00 11 7 24 16 2 3 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 0.00 100.00 14 8 37 13 2 4 Florida American 0.00 100.00 8 5 7 18 3 5 High Point Big South 0.00 100.00 38 66 35 10 8 6 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 0.00 100.00 17 10 47 12 2 7 JMU Colonial 0.00 100.00 16 16 15 12 5 8 Loyola Patriot League 0.00 100.00 10 9 26 11 3 9 Mercer Southern 0.00 100.00 45 71 29 7 8 10 Northwestern Big Ten 0.00 100.00 5 4 25 15 1 11 Robert Morris MAC 0.00 100.00 39 14 79 14 3 12 Stanford Pacific 12 0.00 100.00 9 12 41 11 1 13 Stony Brook America East 0.00 100.00 6 6 10 16 3 14 Umass Atlantic 10 0.00 100.00 12 15 22 15 3 15 UNC Atlantic Coast 0.00 100.00 1 1 3 20 1 16 Wagner Northeast 0.00 100.00 35 51 40 10 5 17 Akron MAC 0.00 0.00 96 84 102 7 8 18 Albany America East 0.00 0.00 26 32 13 11 7 19 American Patriot League 0.00 0.00 83 81 70 1 7 20 Army Patriot League 0.00 0.00 53 49 90 5 4 21 ASU Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 34 41 21 10 6 22 Binghamton America East 0.00 0.00 86 64 101 3 5 23 Boston U Patriot League 0.00 0.00 68 62 94 4 6 24 Bryant Northeast 0.00 0.00 60 67 62 7 6 25 Bucknell Patriot League 0.00 0.00 76 63 91 3 6 26 Butler Big East 0.00 0.00 99 111 66 1 11 27 California Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 94 119 45 2 16 28 Campbell Big South 0.00 0.00 67 73 88 8 7 29 Canisius Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 63 85 56 2 8 30 Central CT Northeast 0.00 0.00 104 117 71 0 13 31 Central MI MAC 0.00 0.00 61 65 84 8 6 32 Cincinnati American 0.00 0.00 52 83 32 7 10 33 Colgate Patriot League 0.00 0.00 70 56 100 5 5 34 Colorado Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 27 57 20 8 7 35 Cst Carolina Southern 0.00 0.00 42 68 39 10 7 36 Davidson Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 32 35 55 11 4 37 Delaware Colonial 0.00 0.00 100 69 99 1 5 38 Delaware St Southern 0.00 0.00 111 106 111 1 9 39 Detroit Mercy MAC 0.00 0.00 102 98 104 2 8 40 Drexel Colonial 0.00 0.00 7 13 30 13 3 41 Duke Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 15 31 8 11 8 42 Duquesne Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 62 58 89 4 5 43 E Carolina American 0.00 0.00 57 107 23 4 12 44 Elon Colonial 0.00 0.00 19 17 67 9 2 45 Fresno State MPSF 0.00 0.00 93 114 53 2 12 46 Furman Southern 0.00 0.00 46 39 75 12 4 47 GardWebb Big South 0.00 0.00 97 101 96 4 9 48 Georgetown Big East 0.00 0.00 59 78 28 6 10 49 GMU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 90 118 44 1 14 50 GWU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 77 76 87 5 7 51 Hartford America East 0.00 0.00 109 102 107 0 9 52 Hofstra Colonial 0.00 0.00 13 42 12 6 7 53 Holy Cross Patriot League 0.00 0.00 95 52 109 2 4 54 Iona Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 105 110 86 0 11 55 JHU Big Ten 0.00 0.00 48 59 54 8 7 56 Kennesaw St Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 79 103 60 4 10 57 Kent State MAC 0.00 0.00 98 108 95 5 10 58 La Salle Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 71 86 65 5 9 59 Lafayette Patriot League 0.00 0.00 108 79 103 0 6 60 Lehigh Patriot League 0.00 0.00 25 33 38 9 4 61 Liberty Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 49 70 34 10 9 62 LIU Northeast 0.00 0.00 56 53 68 9 5 63 Longwood Big South 0.00 0.00 106 115 92 3 12 64 Louisville Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 28 46 5 5 11 65 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 85 96 61 3 9 66 Marist Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 43 54 51 3 5 67 Marquette Big East 0.00 0.00 69 80 74 6 8 68 Maryland Big Ten 0.00 0.00 37 43 27 10 7 69 Merrimack Northeast 0.00 0.00 103 113 85 2 11 70 Michigan Big Ten 0.00 0.00 87 99 82 3 9 71 Monmouth NJ Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 54 47 72 8 5 72 Mt St Marys Northeast 0.00 0.00 21 26 31 13 3 73 Navy Patriot League 0.00 0.00 36 40 63 7 4 74 Niagara Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 24 38 49 8 4 75 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 4 11 4 11 7 76 ODU American 0.00 0.00 91 116 42 3 14 77 Oregon Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 82 91 77 3 8 78 OSU Big Ten 0.00 0.00 72 87 69 4 9 79 Presbyterian Big South 0.00 0.00 110 109 110 4 10 80 PSU Big Ten 0.00 0.00 74 88 58 4 9 81 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 64 72 59 5 7 82 Radford Big South 0.00 0.00 80 112 64 6 12 83 Richmond Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 41 28 97 10 2 84 Rutgers Big Ten 0.00 0.00 47 61 18 7 9 85 Sacred Heart Northeast 0.00 0.00 78 77 80 6 7 86 SDSU MPSF 0.00 0.00 73 100 52 5 9 87 Siena Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 20 29 43 11 3 88 St Bonny Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 89 105 81 2 10 89 St Francis Northeast 0.00 0.00 84 94 76 4 8 90 St Josephs Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 30 48 19 10 7 91 Stetson Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 75 92 57 1 8 92 Syracuse Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 3 3 1 17 4 93 Temple American 0.00 0.00 18 19 9 13 6 94 Towson Colonial 0.00 0.00 29 44 17 9 9 95 UC Davis MPSF 0.00 0.00 51 36 78 12 4 96 Uconn Big East 0.00 0.00 33 45 33 12 7 97 Umass-L America East 0.00 0.00 88 82 83 4 8 98 UMBC America East 0.00 0.00 50 50 50 6 6 99 UNH America East 0.00 0.00 92 75 98 4 7 100 USC Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 40 55 36 9 7 101 VA Tech Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 44 74 14 4 11 102 Vanderbilt American 0.00 0.00 22 37 11 12 7 103 VCU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 65 97 48 7 9 104 Vermont America East 0.00 0.00 58 60 73 6 6 105 Villanova Big East 0.00 0.00 55 93 16 6 11 106 Virginia Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 23 34 6 9 9 107 W&M Colonial 0.00 0.00 66 95 46 3 9 108 Winthrop Big South 0.00 0.00 81 89 93 7 8 109 Wofford Southern 0.00 0.00 107 104 108 2 9 110 Youngstown St MAC 0.00 0.00 101 90 105 2 7