Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below. Last years accuracy: 8 out of 8 or 100%.
 Last 4 years accuracy: 31 out of 32 or 97%.There were no adjustments made to the algorithm.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss records (implicitly in RPI) [2] strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [3] Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [4] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [5] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [6] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [7] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [8] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxpower computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK RNK SIGNIFICANT TOTAL SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS RPI+QW+SOS/2 RPI W L W L T PROB PROB PROB SUM [3] [4] [2] [5] [6] [7] [8] [1] 1 Air Force 100.00 100.00 0.00 24 22 41 66.50 43 32 3 2 12 6 0 2 Albany 100.00 100.00 0.00 3 4 12 13.00 11 1 0 0 15 2 0 3 Bryant 100.00 100.00 0.00 29 37 31 81.50 34 48 1 5 11 8 0 4 Loyola 100.00 100.00 0.00 16 17 22 44.00 16 22 3 3 10 6 0 5 Marquette 100.00 100.00 0.00 21 23 10 49.00 24 11 1 2 8 8 0 6 Maryland 100.00 100.00 0.00 1 1 4 4.00 2 7 0 3 13 3 0 7 Monmouth 100.00 100.00 0.00 37 16 64 85.00 55 55 1 2 14 4 0 8 Towson 100.00 100.00 0.00 10 8 11 23.50 7 20 2 2 11 4 0 9 Yale 100.00 100.00 0.00 13 20 15 40.50 14 14 0 3 10 6 0 10 Ohio State 100.00 0.00 100.00 5 2 6 10.00 6 3 1 2 14 4 0 11 Syracuse 100.00 0.00 100.00 2 3 9 9.50 4 16 0 2 13 2 0 12 Notre Dame 80.11 0.00 80.11 4 10 2 15.00 1 9 1 4 9 5 0 13 Penn State 74.12 0.00 74.12 6 7 7 16.50 10 2 1 2 12 4 0 14 Denver 59.39 0.00 59.39 7 6 16 21.00 8 13 1 2 12 3 0 15 Duke 59.39 0.00 59.39 9 5 14 21.00 9 8 2 1 13 4 0 16 Johns Hopkins 59.39 0.00 59.39 8 13 1 21.50 3 5 1 3 8 7 0 17 North Carolina 43.39 0.00 43.39 11 14 3 26.50 5 6 3 2 8 8 0 18 Rutgers 26.32 0.00 26.32 12 11 23 34.50 18 10 1 1 10 4 0 19 Army 17.06 0.00 17.06 14 9 33 39.50 21 36 2 3 12 4 0 20 Bellarmine 0.00 0.00 0.00 61 56 63 148.50 65 62 1 0 4 9 0 21 Binghamton 0.00 0.00 0.00 20 15 35 52.50 32 15 0 2 11 5 0 22 Boston U. 0.00 0.00 0.00 18 21 32 55.00 25 42 1 2 12 5 0 23 Brown 0.00 0.00 0.00 22 26 30 63.00 20 29 1 2 10 6 0 24 Bucknell 0.00 0.00 0.00 53 47 50 125.00 13 64 4 1 5 8 0 25 Canisius 0.00 0.00 0.00 49 50 46 122.00 56 46 1 1 6 9 0 26 Cleveland State 0.00 0.00 0.00 52 53 8 109.00 53 30 0 0 5 9 0 27 Colgate 0.00 0.00 0.00 48 51 34 116.00 47 40 2 1 5 9 0 28 Cornell 0.00 0.00 0.00 35 41 13 82.50 28 19 1 0 5 8 0 29 Dartmouth 0.00 0.00 0.00 65 66 53 157.50 50 56 2 1 2 11 0 30 Delaware 0.00 0.00 0.00 40 42 42 103.00 35 47 3 2 7 8 0 31 Detroit Mercy 0.00 0.00 0.00 57 62 61 149.50 62 57 0 1 5 11 0 32 Drexel 0.00 0.00 0.00 33 38 18 80.00 19 23 2 1 6 8 0 33 Fairfield 0.00 0.00 0.00 39 48 25 99.50 41 27 1 0 5 9 0 34 Furman 0.00 0.00 0.00 41 45 44 108.00 52 35 1 2 7 8 0 35 Georgetown 0.00 0.00 0.00 43 52 20 105.00 38 24 2 1 4 10 0 36 Hampton 0.00 0.00 0.00 71 27 71 133.50 71 71 0 0 1 7 0 37 Hartford 0.00 0.00 0.00 47 46 48 117.00 40 53 3 2 6 8 0 38 Harvard 0.00 0.00 0.00 36 31 27 80.50 30 26 2 0 6 7 0 39 High Point 0.00 0.00 0.00 55 58 55 140.50 57 51 1 2 4 10 0 40 Hobart 0.00 0.00 0.00 34 34 38 87.00 37 39 1 3 9 7 0 41 Hofstra 0.00 0.00 0.00 15 12 43 48.50 17 28 1 2 11 3 0 42 Holy Cross 0.00 0.00 0.00 51 59 39 129.50 39 49 3 1 5 10 0 43 Jacksonville 0.00 0.00 0.00 58 63 49 145.50 64 54 0 0 3 11 0 44 Lafayette 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 68 47 153.50 59 58 1 1 2 12 0 45 Lehigh 0.00 0.00 0.00 45 39 54 111.00 46 44 2 2 7 7 0 46 Manhattan 0.00 0.00 0.00 67 67 66 167.00 61 69 2 1 3 11 0 47 Marist 0.00 0.00 0.00 38 32 56 98.00 42 59 3 2 10 6 0 48 Massachusetts 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 28 5 49.50 15 17 2 2 7 8 0 49 Mercer 0.00 0.00 0.00 63 55 68 152.00 66 65 2 0 5 8 0 50 Michigan 0.00 0.00 0.00 25 19 29 58.50 44 4 0 0 8 6 0 51 Mount St. Mary's 0.00 0.00 0.00 56 61 57 145.50 49 63 2 1 4 10 0 52 Navy 0.00 0.00 0.00 46 43 45 111.50 31 45 3 3 6 8 0 53 NJIT 0.00 0.00 0.00 70 71 69 175.50 70 70 0 0 1 14 0 54 Penn 0.00 0.00 0.00 28 35 26 76.00 22 25 2 1 7 6 0 55 Princeton 0.00 0.00 0.00 30 29 37 77.50 27 37 4 2 9 6 0 56 Providence 0.00 0.00 0.00 31 33 36 82.00 26 34 3 1 10 7 0 57 Quinnipiac 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 60 65 160.50 68 67 1 0 2 9 0 58 Richmond 0.00 0.00 0.00 23 18 52 67.00 36 33 2 3 12 4 0 59 Robert Morris 0.00 0.00 0.00 42 44 60 116.00 51 41 0 1 9 7 0 60 Sacred Heart 0.00 0.00 0.00 44 36 62 111.00 45 61 3 2 9 6 0 61 Saint Joseph's 0.00 0.00 0.00 50 54 40 124.00 54 43 1 0 5 9 0 62 Siena 0.00 0.00 0.00 64 64 59 157.50 60 60 1 0 3 11 0 63 St. John's 0.00 0.00 0.00 59 69 28 142.00 58 38 0 0 1 13 0 64 Stony Brook 0.00 0.00 0.00 26 30 21 66.50 33 18 1 2 7 7 0 65 UMass Lowell 0.00 0.00 0.00 60 65 58 154.00 63 50 1 1 4 12 0 66 UMBC 0.00 0.00 0.00 32 40 17 80.50 29 21 2 1 6 8 0 67 Vermont 0.00 0.00 0.00 54 49 51 128.50 48 52 3 1 5 8 0 68 Villanova 0.00 0.00 0.00 17 24 19 50.50 12 31 1 3 9 6 0 69 Virginia 0.00 0.00 0.00 27 25 24 64.00 23 12 2 2 8 7 0 70 VMI 0.00 0.00 0.00 69 70 67 172.50 69 68 0 0 2 12 0 71 Wagner 0.00 0.00 0.00 66 57 70 158.00 67 66 3 1 6 9 0