Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below. Last years at-large accuracy: 8 out of 8 or 100%.
 Last 5 years at-large accuracy: 39 out of 40 or 97.5%. There were no adjustments made to the algorithm.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxpower computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK RNK SIGNIFICANT TOTAL SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS RPI+QW+SOS/2 RPI W L W L T PROB PROB PROB SUM [3] [4] [2] [5] [6] [7] [8] [1] 1 Albany 100.00 100.00 0.00 2 2 6 7.00 8 30 1 2 14 2 0 2 Canisius 100.00 100.00 0.00 49 45 60 124.00 52 62 1 4 8 8 0 3 Cornell 100.00 100.00 0.00 9 10 13 25.50 14 22 1 2 12 4 0 4 Georgetown 100.00 100.00 0.00 12 11 17 31.50 24 27 1 2 12 4 0 5 Johns Hopkins 100.00 100.00 0.00 3 6 8 13.00 3 9 1 3 11 4 0 6 Loyola 100.00 100.00 0.00 7 7 10 19.00 10 7 1 2 12 3 0 7 Massachusetts 100.00 100.00 0.00 21 15 51 61.50 30 24 0 2 12 4 0 8 Richmond 100.00 100.00 0.00 29 16 34 62.00 39 31 2 2 11 5 0 9 Robert Morris 100.00 100.00 0.00 17 24 35 58.50 34 36 0 2 12 4 0 10 Maryland 100.00 0.00 100.00 1 1 4 4.00 2 2 0 3 12 3 0 11 Yale 100.00 0.00 100.00 6 4 5 12.50 7 20 1 3 13 3 0 12 Duke 87.15 0.00 87.15 4 3 16 15.00 5 6 0 3 13 3 0 13 Notre Dame 87.15 0.00 87.15 5 9 3 15.50 1 10 1 3 9 5 0 14 Virginia 73.76 0.00 73.76 10 8 7 21.50 21 1 1 1 12 5 0 15 Denver 71.00 0.00 71.00 8 5 20 23.00 15 3 0 1 12 3 0 16 Syracuse 68.37 0.00 68.37 11 12 2 24.00 6 5 3 2 8 6 0 17 Rutgers 44.50 0.00 44.50 15 19 12 40.00 11 12 1 3 9 6 0 18 Villanova 44.50 0.00 44.50 13 17 22 41.00 13 14 1 1 10 5 0 19 Penn 00.00 0.00 00.00 14 29 1 43.50 4 19 1 3 7 8 0 20 Bucknell 38.95 0.00 38.95 16 14 31 45.50 20 35 2 3 11 4 0 21 North Carolina 30.25 0.00 30.25 23 25 9 52.50 19 16 2 2 7 7 0 22 Navy 28.59 0.00 28.59 18 22 28 54.00 18 21 2 2 9 5 0 23 Ohio State 28.59 0.00 28.59 19 26 18 54.00 9 11 2 3 8 7 0 24 Penn State 26.94 0.00 26.94 22 23 19 54.50 17 18 3 1 8 6 0 25 Vermont 26.94 0.00 26.94 20 13 44 55.00 42 8 0 1 12 4 0 26 Michigan 23.70 0.00 23.70 25 21 24 58.00 28 4 3 0 8 6 0 27 Marquette 22.11 0.00 22.11 24 30 11 59.50 16 25 2 2 6 8 0 28 Princeton 22.11 0.00 22.11 27 18 29 59.50 32 13 2 1 8 5 0 29 Towson 17.44 0.00 17.44 26 31 15 64.50 29 17 1 1 7 8 0 30 Lehigh 14.40 0.00 14.40 28 28 23 67.50 38 15 1 0 10 7 0 31 Harvard 9.95 0.00 9.95 30 27 30 72.00 27 23 1 1 7 6 0 32 Boston U. 2.79 0.00 2.79 32 40 14 79.00 33 26 1 1 8 9 0 33 Air Force 0.00 0.00 0.00 55 53 43 129.50 59 49 1 2 5 10 0 34 Army 0.00 0.00 0.00 39 39 25 90.50 40 29 2 1 5 8 0 35 Bellarmine 0.00 0.00 0.00 64 56 65 152.50 53 63 3 1 4 9 0 36 Binghamton 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 61 55 150.50 55 55 2 0 4 11 0 37 Brown 0.00 0.00 0.00 33 46 21 89.50 12 38 3 3 6 9 0 38 Bryant 0.00 0.00 0.00 34 35 41 89.50 44 40 2 2 8 7 0 39 Cleveland State 0.00 0.00 0.00 60 55 45 137.50 66 52 2 2 4 10 0 40 Colgate 0.00 0.00 0.00 40 42 40 102.00 35 39 3 2 7 8 0 41 Dartmouth 0.00 0.00 0.00 59 66 54 152.00 61 42 1 0 2 11 0 42 Delaware 0.00 0.00 0.00 52 47 57 127.50 46 46 4 2 6 8 0 43 Detroit Mercy 0.00 0.00 0.00 46 36 63 113.50 57 57 0 3 9 7 0 44 Drexel 0.00 0.00 0.00 37 44 27 94.50 26 34 2 2 5 8 0 45 Fairfield 0.00 0.00 0.00 50 67 32 133.00 45 43 2 2 4 11 0 46 Furman 0.00 0.00 0.00 56 62 48 142.00 56 53 1 0 4 10 0 47 Hampton 0.00 0.00 0.00 71 33 71 139.50 71 71 0 0 5 8 0 48 Hartford 0.00 0.00 0.00 57 59 56 144.00 43 54 3 1 3 10 0 49 High Point 0.00 0.00 0.00 38 37 26 88.00 54 28 1 1 6 8 0 50 Hobart 0.00 0.00 0.00 54 57 37 129.50 50 50 2 1 4 10 0 51 Hofstra 0.00 0.00 0.00 41 50 52 117.00 22 51 4 3 6 8 0 52 Holy Cross 0.00 0.00 0.00 48 52 47 123.50 37 41 2 0 4 9 0 53 Jacksonville 0.00 0.00 0.00 35 32 38 86.00 48 32 1 1 8 7 0 54 Lafayette 0.00 0.00 0.00 66 70 58 165.00 65 59 1 1 3 12 0 55 Manhattan 0.00 0.00 0.00 67 63 68 164.00 67 69 2 1 4 10 0 56 Marist 0.00 0.00 0.00 61 68 49 153.50 64 56 0 0 3 12 0 57 Mercer 0.00 0.00 0.00 63 64 62 158.00 60 60 3 1 4 10 0 58 Monmouth 0.00 0.00 0.00 58 51 64 141.00 63 65 2 1 7 8 0 59 Mount St. Mary's 0.00 0.00 0.00 51 54 50 130.00 62 48 1 1 5 9 0 60 NJIT 0.00 0.00 0.00 69 71 59 169.50 70 68 0 1 1 15 0 61 Providence 0.00 0.00 0.00 45 58 46 126.00 23 47 4 1 5 10 0 62 Quinnipiac 0.00 0.00 0.00 53 34 67 120.50 58 64 3 1 9 6 0 63 Sacred Heart 0.00 0.00 0.00 47 49 53 122.50 47 58 2 2 7 8 0 64 Saint Joseph's 0.00 0.00 0.00 31 20 61 81.50 36 61 2 3 11 4 0 65 Siena 0.00 0.00 0.00 65 60 66 158.00 49 66 2 0 3 9 0 66 St. John's 0.00 0.00 0.00 43 48 39 110.50 41 33 3 1 6 8 0 67 Stony Brook 0.00 0.00 0.00 36 41 36 95.00 31 37 1 2 7 8 0 68 UMass Lowell 0.00 0.00 0.00 44 38 42 103.00 51 45 1 2 8 8 0 69 UMBC 0.00 0.00 0.00 42 43 33 101.50 25 44 2 2 5 8 0 70 VMI 0.00 0.00 0.00 70 69 70 174.00 69 70 1 0 2 11 0 71 Wagner 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 65 69 167.50 68 67 1 0 4 10 0