Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete list below. Last years accuracy: 11 out of 13 or 84.5% or 13 out of 15.
 There were no adjustments made to the algorithm.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 26-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Thirteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL AQ AT-LARGE RNK RNK RNK Significant TOP LST 6 TOTAL PROB PROB PROB W-L RPI SOS W L W-L-T W-L-T W L T [1] [3] [2] [4] [5] [6] 1 Bryant 100.00 100.00 0.00 15 47 71 0 1 0-3-0 5-1-0 13 5 0 2 Canisius 100.00 100.00 0.00 14 31 47 1 1 0-1-0 5-1-0 15 5 0 3 Florida 100.00 100.00 0.00 5 4 2 0 1 4-3-0 5-1-0 17 3 0 4 High Point 100.00 100.00 0.00 10 24 42 1 0 0-2-0 5-1-0 16 4 0 5 Jacksonville 100.00 100.00 0.00 18 29 29 0 2 0-4-0 4-2-0 14 6 0 6 James Madison 100.00 100.00 0.00 24 15 13 0 2 1-4-0 5-2-0 14 7 0 7 Maryland 100.00 100.00 0.00 1 1 3 0 0 6-0-0 6-0-0 20 0 0 8 Massachusetts 100.00 100.00 0.00 8 16 23 1 1 1-2-0 6-1-0 17 4 0 9 Navy 100.00 100.00 0.00 8 17 24 2 2 2-0-0 6-0-0 17 4 0 10 Southern California 100.00 100.00 0.00 4 10 8 1 1 3-2-0 6-0-0 18 3 0 11 Stony Brook 100.00 100.00 0.00 2 5 11 0 0 2-1-0 6-0-0 20 1 0 12 Boston College 100.00 0.00 100.00 17 9 7 1 2 3-3-0 5-1-0 15 6 0 13 Colorado 100.00 0.00 100.00 10 11 9 1 1 3-4-0 4-2-0 16 4 0 14 Cornell 100.00 23.79 100.00 20 14 14 2 1 2-4-0 3-3-0 13 6 0 15 North Carolina 100.00 61.03 100.00 3 2 10 0 1 3-1-0 5-0-0 17 2 0 16 Northwestern 100.00 0.00 100.00 51 12 1 1 0 2-9-0 4-3-0 11 10 0 17 Penn 100.00 29.24 100.00 13 8 18 1 2 1-3-0 4-2-0 13 4 0 18 Penn State 100.00 0.00 100.00 6 7 12 1 2 1-2-0 3-2-0 16 3 0 19 Princeton 100.00 38.69 100.00 7 3 6 0 2 1-3-0 5-0-0 15 3 0 20 Syracuse 100.00 17.56 100.00 23 6 5 1 3 3-4-0 4-3-0 15 7 0 21 Virginia 100.00 11.66 100.00 41 13 4 0 1 1-5-0 5-2-0 12 9 0 22 Notre Dame 49.99 9.75 44.59 37 25 22 3 0 0-2-0 2-4-0 11 8 0 23 Johns Hopkins 46.75 0.00 46.75 33 18 15 0 1 0-5-0 3-3-0 11 7 0 24 Loyola 45.88 0.00 45.88 37 21 16 1 0 1-4-0 5-1-0 11 8 0 25 Albany 44.64 0.00 44.64 24 22 20 1 0 0-4-0 4-2-0 12 6 0 26 Towson 43.80 0.00 43.80 31 19 19 1 3 0-4-0 3-3-0 12 7 0 27 Elon 42.75 0.00 42.75 29 20 33 2 2 1-1-0 4-2-0 13 7 0 28 Denver 37.68 0.00 37.68 12 27 34 1 1 0-3-0 4-2-0 14 4 0 29 Virginia Tech 33.98 0.00 33.98 37 34 30 3 0 0-1-0 0-6-0 11 8 0 30 Louisville 32.30 0.00 32.30 37 32 32 2 0 0-2-0 2-4-0 11 8 0 31 Temple 31.98 0.00 31.98 15 26 43 0 2 0-4-0 3-3-0 13 5 0 32 Lehigh 31.89 0.00 31.89 24 28 37 0 1 0-4-0 3-3-0 12 6 0 33 Delaware 31.30 0.00 31.30 47 30 25 1 2 0-4-0 3-3-0 9 8 0 34 Rutgers 30.68 0.00 30.68 52 33 26 1 0 0-3-0 1-4-0 8 8 0 35 Georgetown 29.41 0.00 29.41 52 36 21 1 0 1-4-0 4-2-0 9 9 0 36 Harvard 28.72 8.28 22.28 52 38 28 0 0 0-3-0 2-3-0 8 8 0 37 Richmond 19.16 0.00 19.16 18 37 46 0 1 0-2-0 5-1-0 14 6 0 38 Stanford 18.84 0.00 18.84 24 35 49 0 1 0-4-0 4-2-0 12 6 0 39 Oregon 16.71 0.00 16.71 47 43 36 0 1 0-4-0 2-4-0 9 8 0 40 Hofstra 16.38 0.00 16.38 52 45 41 2 2 0-2-0 2-3-0 8 8 0 41 San Diego State 15.00 0.00 15.00 43 44 50 2 1 0-4-0 2-4-0 10 8 0 42 Boston University 13.87 0.00 13.87 43 39 51 0 2 0-2-0 5-1-0 10 8 0 43 Connecticut 13.37 0.00 13.37 52 48 38 1 1 0-3-0 5-0-0 8 8 0 44 Coastal Carolina 11.51 0.00 11.51 20 41 57 1 3 0-0-0 5-1-0 13 6 0 45 George Mason 5.08 0.00 5.08 33 49 66 2 2 0-2-0 3-3-0 11 7 0 46 UMBC 2.46 0.00 2.46 30 50 76 0 0 0-1-0 4-2-0 11 6 0 47 Fairfield 1.97 0.00 1.97 24 54 93 1 1 0-2-0 4-2-0 12 6 0 48 Saint Joseph's 1.91 0.00 1.91 33 56 83 1 1 0-1-0 4-2-0 11 7 0 49 Fresno State 1.86 0.00 1.86 42 60 73 1 2 0-2-0 2-3-0 9 7 0 50 Lafayette 1.85 0.00 1.85 43 59 77 1 1 0-1-0 1-5-0 10 8 0 51 Bucknell 1.83 0.00 1.83 47 53 78 0 1 0-1-0 2-4-0 9 8 0 52 Marist 1.81 0.00 1.81 50 65 58 0 2 0-4-0 4-2-0 10 9 0 53 Mercer 1.54 0.00 1.54 20 62 85 0 1 0-0-0 3-3-0 13 6 0 54 Furman 1.54 0.00 1.54 31 66 87 1 1 0-0-0 3-3-0 12 7 0 55 Old Dominion 1.43 0.00 1.43 52 70 82 2 3 0-0-0 3-3-0 9 9 0 56 Campbell 1.39 0.00 1.39 43 58 75 0 3 0-2-0 4-2-0 10 8 0 57 Robert Morris 0.57 0.00 0.57 33 83 110 1 2 0-0-0 3-3-0 11 7 0 58 American 0.00 0.00 0.00 100 84 67 1 0 0-1-0 1-4-0 3 13 0 59 Army 0.00 0.00 0.00 89 89 84 2 1 0-1-0 1-5-0 5 12 0 60 Binghamton 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 69 59 0 0 0-2-0 1-5-0 6 11 0 61 Brown 0.00 0.00 0.00 71 57 61 1 0 0-2-0 2-3-0 6 9 0 62 Butler 0.00 0.00 0.00 110 110 91 0 0 0-2-0 0-6-0 1 16 0 63 California 0.00 0.00 0.00 92 86 65 3 0 0-3-0 3-3-0 5 13 0 64 Central Connecticut 0.00 0.00 0.00 95 104 109 2 0 0-0-0 2-3-0 4 12 0 65 Central Michigan 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 95 101 2 0 0-0-0 3-3-0 7 10 0 66 Cincinnati 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 79 69 2 1 0-2-0 1-5-0 6 11 0 67 Colgate 0.00 0.00 0.00 71 73 80 2 1 0-1-0 2-3-0 6 9 0 68 Columbia 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 42 53 2 3 1-2-0 1-4-0 7 8 0 69 Dartmouth 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 46 40 2 0 0-3-0 2-3-0 7 8 0 70 Davidson 0.00 0.00 0.00 64 63 48 1 1 0-2-0 4-2-0 8 10 0 71 Delaware State 0.00 0.00 0.00 106 106 107 0 0 0-0-0 0-4-0 1 10 0 72 Detroit Mercy 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 92 95 2 1 0-0-0 4-2-0 6 11 0 73 Drexel 0.00 0.00 0.00 65 51 52 2 0 0-2-0 1-4-0 7 9 0 74 Duke 0.00 0.00 0.00 60 23 17 3 3 1-3-0 2-4-0 8 9 0 75 Duquesne 0.00 0.00 0.00 105 94 63 1 1 0-3-0 0-6-0 2 15 0 76 Gardner-Webb 0.00 0.00 0.00 111 112 103 0 0 0-1-0 0-6-0 0 17 0 77 George Washington 0.00 0.00 0.00 100 90 74 1 1 0-2-0 1-4-0 3 13 0 78 Holy Cross 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 67 62 2 1 0-1-0 1-5-0 7 10 0 79 Howard 0.00 0.00 0.00 111 111 106 0 0 0-0-0 0-4-0 0 12 0 80 Iona 0.00 0.00 0.00 89 96 100 3 2 0-1-0 2-4-0 5 12 0 81 Kennesaw State 0.00 0.00 0.00 60 88 98 1 1 0-0-0 2-4-0 8 9 0 82 La Salle 0.00 0.00 0.00 74 75 64 0 2 0-2-0 1-5-0 7 11 0 83 Liberty 0.00 0.00 0.00 87 87 72 0 0 0-3-0 3-3-0 6 13 0 84 LIU Brooklyn 0.00 0.00 0.00 99 108 111 2 0 0-0-0 1-4-0 3 12 0 85 Longwood 0.00 0.00 0.00 74 91 88 1 1 0-2-0 2-4-0 7 11 0 86 Manhattan 0.00 0.00 0.00 88 98 104 2 1 0-1-0 2-3-0 5 11 0 87 Marquette 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 64 45 1 1 0-3-0 2-4-0 6 11 0 88 Massachusetts-Lowell 0.00 0.00 0.00 65 76 89 1 0 0-1-0 1-4-0 7 9 0 89 Michigan 0.00 0.00 0.00 89 52 27 0 0 0-4-0 2-4-0 5 12 0 90 Monmouth 0.00 0.00 0.00 86 85 68 2 1 0-1-0 2-4-0 6 12 0 91 Mount St. Mary's 0.00 0.00 0.00 94 97 105 1 1 0-0-0 2-3-0 4 11 0 92 New Hampshire 0.00 0.00 0.00 102 68 39 0 0 0-4-0 2-4-0 3 14 0 93 Niagara 0.00 0.00 0.00 58 78 94 0 0 0-2-0 3-3-0 9 10 0 94 Ohio State 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 61 31 1 1 0-3-0 0-6-0 6 11 0 95 Presbyterian 0.00 0.00 0.00 104 107 99 0 1 0-1-0 0-5-0 2 14 0 96 Quinnipiac 0.00 0.00 0.00 97 101 102 2 0 0-1-0 1-5-0 4 13 0 97 Radford 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 102 108 1 1 0-1-0 1-5-0 6 11 0 98 Sacred Heart 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 93 97 2 3 0-0-0 3-3-0 6 11 0 99 Saint Francis 0.00 0.00 0.00 76 105 112 4 1 0-0-0 0-5-0 6 10 0 100 Siena 0.00 0.00 0.00 108 109 96 1 0 0-1-0 0-5-0 1 15 0 101 St. Bonaventure 0.00 0.00 0.00 97 99 86 3 2 0-1-0 2-4-0 4 13 0 102 St. Mary's (CA) 0.00 0.00 0.00 107 103 90 0 2 0-2-0 0-5-0 1 13 0 103 Stetson 0.00 0.00 0.00 92 81 54 0 1 0-2-0 1-5-0 5 13 0 104 UC Davis 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 74 56 1 1 0-3-0 1-5-0 6 11 0 105 Vanderbilt 0.00 0.00 0.00 71 55 55 2 2 0-2-0 0-5-0 6 9 0 106 Vermont 0.00 0.00 0.00 108 100 70 1 1 0-2-0 0-5-0 1 15 0 107 Villanova 0.00 0.00 0.00 95 72 60 2 1 0-3-0 1-4-0 4 12 0 108 Virginia Commonwealt 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 77 81 1 1 0-1-0 2-4-0 7 10 0 109 Wagner 0.00 0.00 0.00 77 82 79 1 3 0-0-0 4-2-0 7 12 0 110 William & Mary 0.00 0.00 0.00 102 71 44 0 0 0-1-0 0-6-0 3 14 0 111 Winthrop 0.00 0.00 0.00 58 80 92 2 0 0-2-0 5-1-0 9 10 0 112 Yale 0.00 0.00 0.00 65 40 35 1 2 0-3-0 1-4-0 7 9 0