Last year s predictions were 11 out of 12 or 92%.
 There were no adjustments made to the algorithm.
 
 
 

Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division II Championship Tournament

The format for the NCAA Division II Women s Lacrosse Championship is a twelve-team, single-elimination tournament. Teams must play a minimum of 10 games in-region and have at least a .500 record, and regular-season games tied after regulation must be decided in overtime. Each region (North and South) will have six teams, and teams will be paired within region. The prediction is based on the rankings of region record, division record, record against teams with a 50% winning record and sos in-region. See NCAA for more info. Primary Factors for Selecting Teams [1] In-region Division II won-lost results [2] Overall division II won-lost results [3] Strength of schedule in-region [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Results vs. teams with records above .500 [-] Performance indicator (not defined by NCAA) Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. NORTH Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Adelphi 100.00 1 2 3 3 18 1 0 19 1 0 2 Le Moyne 100.00 1 2 3 6 18 1 0 19 1 0 3 LIU Post 40.28 3 10 7 4 15 3 0 16 3 0 4 New Haven 33.86 7 19 20 9 15 5 0 15 5 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Mercy 33.14 5 13 16 27 15 4 0 16 4 0 6 NYIT 32.78 5 14 13 31 15 4 0 15 4 0 7 McKendree 32.43 3 23 15 22 10 2 0 13 5 0 8 Davenport 27.51 50 11 10 14 0 0 0 15 3 0 9 Indianapolis 0.00 9 23 19 52 11 4 0 13 5 0 10 Tiffin 0.00 11 33 23 48 10 4 0 12 6 0 11 Stonehill 0.00 15 41 52 11 11 6 0 12 7 0 12 Grand Valley State 0.00 18 70 45 10 8 5 0 8 9 0 13 Georgian Court 0.00 10 32 35 83 13 5 0 13 6 0 14 Pace 0.00 15 37 73 38 11 6 0 11 6 0 15 Lake Erie 0.00 17 33 26 91 9 5 0 10 5 0 16 UVa-Wise 0.00 11 29 35 99 5 2 0 12 5 0 17 Molloy 0.00 13 33 62 86 10 5 0 10 5 0 18 Bentley 0.00 24 70 83 18 8 8 0 8 9 0 19 Bridgeport 0.00 19 47 46 88 9 6 0 9 6 0 20 Roberts Wesleyan 0.00 32 82 46 32 6 9 0 7 11 0 21 Assumption 0.00 23 61 78 43 9 8 0 9 8 0 22 Wheeling Jesuit 0.00 7 50 78 77 9 3 0 10 7 0 23 Alderson Broaddus 0.00 13 39 37 129 8 4 0 9 5 0 24 S. New Hampshire 0.00 34 79 55 45 5 10 0 7 10 0 25 Philadelphia 0.00 21 57 78 80 9 7 0 10 8 0 26 Dominican 0.00 20 53 62 110 8 6 0 8 6 0 27 Findlay 0.00 22 82 62 76 7 6 0 7 11 0 28 Walsh 0.00 26 64 46 116 6 7 0 8 8 0 29 Saint Anselm 0.00 37 90 83 36 4 9 0 6 11 0 30 Franklin Pierce 0.00 30 75 93 57 7 9 0 7 9 0 31 Concordia-St. Paul 0.00 32 64 54 120 2 3 0 8 8 0 32 Shepherd 0.00 26 93 78 74 6 7 0 6 12 0 33 St. Thomas Aquinas 0.00 34 97 89 54 5 10 0 5 11 0 34 Chestnut Hill 0.00 25 82 93 81 7 8 0 7 11 0 35 Urbana 0.00 50 131 93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 Wilmington 0.00 26 87 68 107 6 7 0 6 10 0 37 Saint Michael's 0.00 39 105 73 70 4 10 0 4 10 0 38 Ursuline 0.00 29 64 68 136 4 5 0 8 8 0 39 Southern Connecticut 0.00 40 111 78 61 4 12 0 4 12 0 40 Merrimack 0.00 42 114 93 41 4 13 0 4 13 0 41 Caldwell 0.00 30 75 93 105 7 9 0 7 9 0 42 West Virginia Wesley 0.00 34 109 93 73 3 6 0 4 11 0 43 American Internation 0.00 40 111 93 69 4 12 0 4 12 0 44 Charleston 0.00 38 109 83 85 3 7 0 4 11 0 45 Queens (NY) 0.00 43 116 93 84 3 12 0 3 12 0 46 Holy Family 0.00 44 120 93 97 2 9 0 2 12 0 47 Notre Dame (OH) 0.00 47 115 62 135 1 8 0 3 10 0 48 University of DC 0.00 48 126 93 96 1 10 0 1 11 0 49 Nyack 0.00 45 123 93 109 2 12 0 2 14 0 50 Post 0.00 45 120 93 114 2 12 0 2 12 0 51 Northern Michigan 0.00 49 122 93 122 1 12 0 2 13 0 52 Ohio Valley 0.00 50 131 93 113 0 1 0 0 3 0 53 Davis & Elkins 0.00 50 131 93 123 0 10 0 0 12 0 54 Felician 0.00 50 131 93 125 0 11 0 0 12 0 SOUTH Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Lindenwood 100.00 1 1 2 2 18 1 0 21 1 0 2 Florida Southern 100.00 2 5 5 1 17 1 0 20 2 0 3 Regis (CO) 37.07 5 7 8 7 15 3 0 17 3 0 4 Queens (Charlotte) 34.91 6 12 12 8 16 4 0 17 4 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 East Stroudsburg 34.55 3 7 8 23 15 2 0 17 3 0 6 Florida Tech 33.33 10 16 14 5 10 4 0 14 4 0 7 Limestone 31.96 4 7 11 34 17 3 0 17 3 0 8 Wingate 28.18 8 23 23 21 12 4 0 13 5 0 9 Mercyhurst 0.00 9 23 23 26 11 4 0 13 5 0 10 Rollins 0.00 18 29 18 13 8 5 0 12 5 0 11 Colorado Mesa 0.00 7 18 22 53 13 4 0 13 4 0 12 West Chester 0.00 14 29 26 33 10 5 0 12 5 0 13 Coker 0.00 12 21 26 49 11 5 0 14 5 0 14 Mount Olive 0.00 14 41 26 25 12 6 0 12 7 0 15 Indiana (PA) 0.00 17 45 33 17 10 6 0 11 7 0 16 Alabama-Huntsville 0.00 10 21 26 71 10 4 0 14 5 0 17 Catawba 0.00 16 23 34 67 9 5 0 13 5 0 18 Lenoir-Rhyne 0.00 22 52 40 24 10 8 0 11 8 0 19 Fort Lewis 0.00 21 54 46 19 9 7 0 9 7 0 20 Slippery Rock 0.00 20 33 26 66 8 6 0 12 6 0 21 Young Harris 0.00 12 41 17 75 11 5 0 12 7 0 22 Seton Hill 0.00 25 57 42 29 8 8 0 10 8 0 23 Belmont Abbey 0.00 22 57 42 47 10 8 0 10 8 0 24 Lock Haven 0.00 28 61 52 30 7 8 0 9 8 0 25 Bloomsburg 0.00 25 54 46 60 7 7 0 9 7 0 26 Millersville 0.00 31 70 42 37 5 8 0 8 9 0 27 North Greenville 0.00 19 63 55 58 10 7 0 10 9 0 28 Rockhurst 0.00 32 64 66 35 4 7 0 9 9 0 29 Saint Leo 0.00 37 90 51 20 5 11 0 6 11 0 30 Tampa 0.00 34 90 68 16 5 10 0 6 11 0 31 Westminster 0.00 29 60 55 72 5 6 0 7 6 0 32 Pfeiffer 0.00 24 54 59 106 8 7 0 9 7 0 33 Shorter 0.00 29 44 73 126 5 6 0 10 6 0 34 CSU-Pueblo 0.00 38 93 92 40 4 9 0 5 10 0 35 Kutztown 0.00 42 79 89 55 3 9 0 7 10 0 36 Emmanuel (GA) 0.00 25 47 93 112 6 6 0 9 6 0 37 Tusculum 0.00 34 102 93 44 5 10 0 5 12 0 38 Shippensburg 0.00 42 75 83 78 3 9 0 7 9 0 39 Newberry 0.00 46 102 66 63 2 10 0 5 12 0 40 Gannon 0.00 39 97 89 59 4 10 0 5 11 0 41 Lincoln Memorial 0.00 34 81 83 90 4 8 0 6 9 0 42 Montevallo 0.00 39 74 93 87 4 10 0 8 10 0 43 Oklahoma Baptist 0.00 45 105 93 68 2 9 0 4 10 0 44 Lees-McRae 0.00 33 93 93 98 5 9 0 5 10 0 45 Converse 0.00 44 102 93 93 3 11 0 5 12 0 46 Edinboro 0.00 50 124 93 62 0 14 0 2 15 0 47 Adams State 0.00 49 129 93 65 1 13 0 1 13 0 48 Chowan 0.00 41 93 93 132 3 8 0 5 10 0 49 Erskine 0.00 47 124 93 89 2 12 0 2 15 0 50 Lee 0.00 50 131 93 82 0 11 0 0 14 0 51 Brevard 0.00 50 116 93 101 0 10 0 3 12 0 52 Colo.-Colorado Sprin 0.00 48 105 93 118 1 9 0 4 10 0 53 Barton 0.00 50 126 93 119 0 11 0 1 11 0