Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete list below. Last years accuracy: 11 out of 13 or 84.5%
 Predictions for the past two years is 22/26 or 85%.
 There were no adjustments made to the algorithm.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 26-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fourteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 12 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL AQ AT-LARGE RNK RNK RNK Significant TOP LST 6 TOTAL PROB PROB PROB W-L RPI SOS W L W-L-T W-L-T W L T [1] [3] [2] [4] [5] [6] 1 Fairfield 100.00 100.00 0.00 24 50 98 2 3 0-0-0 6-0-0 13 6 0 2 Florida 100.00 100.00 0.00 6 5 4 1 2 4-2-0 6-0-0 16 3 0 3 High Point 100.00 100.00 0.00 5 18 38 0 0 0-2-0 6-0-0 17 2 0 4 Jacksonville 100.00 100.00 0.00 6 43 84 1 0 0-1-0 6-0-0 16 3 0 5 James Madison 100.00 100.00 0.00 3 4 6 1 0 5-1-0 6-0-0 18 1 0 6 Maryland 100.00 100.00 0.00 3 2 9 0 0 3-1-0 6-0-0 18 1 0 7 Mercer 100.00 100.00 0.00 60 85 103 1 4 0-1-0 4-2-0 9 10 0 8 Navy 100.00 100.00 0.00 6 8 21 0 1 1-3-0 6-0-0 16 3 0 9 North Carolina 100.00 100.00 0.00 10 1 1 0 3 3-3-0 6-0-0 15 3 0 10 Princeton 100.00 100.00 0.00 21 13 25 2 3 2-2-0 6-0-0 12 5 0 11 Richmond 100.00 100.00 0.00 6 23 29 0 1 0-1-0 5-1-0 16 3 0 12 Stanford 100.00 100.00 0.00 11 14 27 1 1 0-1-0 5-1-0 15 4 0 13 Wagner 100.00 100.00 0.00 17 58 85 2 3 0-0-0 5-1-0 13 5 0 14 Boston College 100.00 0.00 100.00 2 3 16 1 0 2-1-0 5-1-0 19 1 0 15 Northwestern 100.00 0.00 100.00 17 9 14 0 2 1-3-0 4-2-0 13 5 0 16 Towson 100.00 0.00 100.00 11 7 8 1 1 1-4-0 4-2-0 15 4 0 17 Loyola 67.90 0.00 67.90 11 10 22 2 2 2-2-0 5-1-0 15 4 0 18 Virginia Tech 65.99 0.00 65.99 24 15 13 0 1 0-4-0 4-2-0 13 6 0 19 Denver 65.39 0.00 65.39 27 16 11 2 2 1-3-0 4-2-0 12 6 0 20 Colorado 63.97 0.00 63.97 17 12 20 0 3 2-2-0 5-1-0 13 5 0 21 Stony Brook 62.32 0.00 62.32 1 6 42 0 0 2-0-0 6-0-0 19 0 0 22 Penn 62.18 0.00 62.18 15 11 24 0 2 0-1-0 4-2-0 13 4 0 23 Syracuse 60.65 0.00 60.65 54 19 3 3 3 2-4-0 2-4-0 9 9 0 24 Penn State 60.20 0.00 60.20 51 21 2 2 1 0-6-0 1-5-0 10 9 0 25 Georgetown 59.27 0.00 59.27 27 17 15 1 0 0-5-0 4-2-0 12 6 0 26 Virginia 59.13 0.00 59.13 54 20 5 2 2 1-6-0 1-5-0 9 9 0 27 Johns Hopkins 55.61 0.00 55.61 43 22 10 1 0 1-5-0 3-3-0 10 8 0 28 Southern California 53.73 0.00 53.73 43 26 7 2 1 0-5-0 3-3-0 10 8 0 29 Dartmouth 41.74 0.00 41.74 23 24 30 1 2 1-3-0 3-2-0 11 5 0 30 Notre Dame 41.48 0.00 41.48 51 27 18 2 1 1-4-0 3-3-0 10 9 0 31 UC Davis 38.58 37.70 1.41 41 47 100 0 3 0-2-0 3-2-0 8 6 0 32 Saint Joseph's 34.69 0.00 34.69 31 28 26 0 1 0-4-0 5-1-0 12 7 0 33 San Diego State 33.93 32.24 2.49 39 51 53 2 1 0-1-0 3-3-0 11 8 0 34 Massachusetts 29.12 0.00 29.12 16 25 40 2 3 1-2-0 4-2-0 14 5 0 35 Lehigh 26.89 0.00 26.89 24 29 36 0 1 0-3-0 5-1-0 13 6 0 36 Boston University 19.92 0.00 19.92 43 35 33 0 1 0-4-0 4-2-0 10 8 0 37 St. Mary's (CA) 19.90 19.90 0.00 14 116 68 0 0 0-0-0 4-1-0 10 3 0 38 Marquette 14.21 0.00 14.21 43 37 39 0 1 0-2-0 2-4-0 10 8 0 39 Oregon 13.70 0.00 13.70 54 40 34 1 1 0-3-0 2-4-0 9 9 0 40 Fresno State 10.16 10.16 0.00 54 87 102 3 0 0-1-0 1-5-0 9 9 0 41 Temple 5.67 0.00 5.67 49 44 44 1 1 0-2-0 2-4-0 9 8 0 42 Brown 4.52 0.00 4.52 34 36 61 2 2 0-2-0 3-2-0 9 6 0 43 Liberty 3.39 0.00 3.39 17 38 59 0 2 0-3-0 4-2-0 13 5 0 44 Winthrop 3.32 0.00 3.32 22 45 54 2 2 0-3-0 3-3-0 14 6 0 45 George Mason 2.75 0.00 2.75 32 54 72 0 2 0-1-0 2-4-0 11 7 0 46 Colgate 2.61 0.00 2.61 35 59 69 2 2 0-2-0 2-4-0 10 7 0 47 Villanova 2.46 0.00 2.46 42 46 57 3 1 0-2-0 3-2-0 9 7 0 48 Canisius 2.44 0.00 2.44 48 42 67 1 3 0-1-0 3-3-0 11 9 0 49 Albany 2.38 0.00 2.38 54 49 50 1 1 0-2-0 4-2-0 9 9 0 50 Marist 2.01 0.00 2.01 35 55 79 1 2 0-1-0 3-3-0 10 7 0 51 Davidson 2.00 0.00 2.00 39 56 63 2 4 0-1-0 4-2-0 11 8 0 52 Army 1.45 0.00 1.45 35 65 74 1 2 0-2-0 3-3-0 10 7 0 53 Bryant 0.79 0.00 0.79 27 63 88 2 1 0-0-0 4-2-0 12 6 0 54 Mount St. Mary's 0.75 0.00 0.75 35 68 78 3 3 0-0-0 4-2-0 10 7 0 55 UMBC 0.73 0.00 0.73 30 61 82 0 2 0-2-0 3-3-0 11 6 0 56 Coastal Carolina 0.72 0.00 0.72 51 73 77 1 1 0-3-0 4-2-0 10 9 0 57 American 0.00 0.00 0.00 105 98 60 1 0 0-3-0 0-6-0 3 14 0 58 Arizona State 0.00 0.00 0.00 88 80 58 2 0 0-2-0 0-6-0 6 12 0 59 Binghamton 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 67 64 2 1 0-2-0 3-3-0 8 9 0 60 Bucknell 0.00 0.00 0.00 103 86 65 2 1 0-2-0 1-4-0 3 13 0 61 Butler 0.00 0.00 0.00 114 102 75 0 0 0-1-0 0-6-0 1 16 0 62 California 0.00 0.00 0.00 88 72 62 2 2 0-2-0 2-4-0 6 12 0 63 Campbell 0.00 0.00 0.00 60 66 43 1 2 0-3-0 3-3-0 9 10 0 64 Central Connecticut 0.00 0.00 0.00 107 107 101 0 0 0-1-0 0-5-0 2 14 0 65 Central Michigan 0.00 0.00 0.00 32 89 114 4 2 0-0-0 4-2-0 11 7 0 66 Cincinnati 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 70 73 3 0 0-1-0 2-4-0 8 9 0 67 Columbia 0.00 0.00 0.00 82 57 49 4 2 0-2-0 2-3-0 6 10 0 68 Connecticut 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 41 41 0 2 0-2-0 3-3-0 8 9 0 69 Cornell 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 31 35 1 2 0-2-0 1-4-0 7 8 0 70 Delaware 0.00 0.00 0.00 70 33 17 0 2 0-5-0 3-3-0 8 10 0 71 Delaware State 0.00 0.00 0.00 115 115 115 0 0 0-1-0 0-5-0 0 14 0 72 Detroit Mercy 0.00 0.00 0.00 43 93 113 3 0 0-0-0 4-2-0 10 8 0 73 Drexel 0.00 0.00 0.00 99 77 48 2 0 0-4-0 1-4-0 4 12 0 74 Duke 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 30 12 2 0 0-5-0 1-5-0 8 9 0 75 Duquesne 0.00 0.00 0.00 94 83 86 1 2 0-1-0 1-5-0 5 12 0 76 East Carolina 0.00 0.00 0.00 107 108 108 0 0 0-0-0 1-4-0 2 14 0 77 Elon 0.00 0.00 0.00 98 39 23 1 1 0-6-0 2-2-0 4 11 0 78 Furman 0.00 0.00 0.00 74 88 90 1 2 0-2-0 4-2-0 8 11 0 79 Gardner-Webb 0.00 0.00 0.00 105 109 99 0 0 0-1-0 1-5-0 3 14 0 80 George Washington 0.00 0.00 0.00 49 75 93 1 2 0-1-0 0-6-0 9 8 0 81 Hartford 0.00 0.00 0.00 112 112 111 0 0 0-1-0 0-5-0 1 12 0 82 Harvard 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 48 51 3 1 0-2-0 3-2-0 6 9 0 83 Hofstra 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 53 37 0 0 0-4-0 2-4-0 8 9 0 84 Holy Cross 0.00 0.00 0.00 88 69 28 1 1 0-4-0 2-4-0 6 12 0 85 Howard 0.00 0.00 0.00 112 114 116 0 0 0-1-0 0-5-0 1 12 0 86 Iona 0.00 0.00 0.00 70 81 87 3 1 0-0-0 2-4-0 8 10 0 87 Kennesaw State 0.00 0.00 0.00 79 96 104 2 1 0-1-0 3-3-0 7 11 0 88 La Salle 0.00 0.00 0.00 75 78 71 2 1 0-1-0 3-3-0 7 10 0 89 Lafayette 0.00 0.00 0.00 94 97 83 1 1 0-2-0 1-5-0 5 12 0 90 LIU Brooklyn 0.00 0.00 0.00 103 111 110 1 0 0-0-0 0-5-0 3 13 0 91 Longwood 0.00 0.00 0.00 79 90 76 1 1 0-1-0 2-4-0 7 11 0 92 Louisville 0.00 0.00 0.00 84 52 31 1 1 0-3-0 0-6-0 6 11 0 93 Manhattan 0.00 0.00 0.00 92 99 107 2 1 0-0-0 2-3-0 5 11 0 94 Massachusetts-Lowell 0.00 0.00 0.00 101 95 66 1 0 0-1-0 1-5-0 4 13 0 95 Michigan 0.00 0.00 0.00 82 34 19 1 2 0-5-0 1-4-0 6 10 0 96 Monmouth 0.00 0.00 0.00 70 74 89 2 2 0-0-0 4-2-0 8 10 0 97 New Hampshire 0.00 0.00 0.00 84 82 55 1 0 0-2-0 1-5-0 6 11 0 98 Niagara 0.00 0.00 0.00 70 79 91 2 0 0-0-0 3-3-0 8 10 0 99 Ohio State 0.00 0.00 0.00 88 60 46 1 2 0-3-0 0-5-0 5 10 0 100 Old Dominion 0.00 0.00 0.00 97 91 56 2 3 0-4-0 1-5-0 5 13 0 101 Presbyterian 0.00 0.00 0.00 110 110 94 0 1 0-1-0 0-6-0 2 15 0 102 Quinnipiac 0.00 0.00 0.00 92 101 109 1 0 0-0-0 0-5-0 5 11 0 103 Radford 0.00 0.00 0.00 84 92 92 1 0 0-1-0 2-4-0 6 11 0 104 Robert Morris 0.00 0.00 0.00 54 84 96 3 1 0-0-0 4-2-0 9 9 0 105 Rutgers 0.00 0.00 0.00 75 62 45 2 0 0-3-0 2-4-0 7 10 0 106 Sacred Heart 0.00 0.00 0.00 107 105 95 0 0 0-0-0 1-4-0 2 14 0 107 Saint Francis 0.00 0.00 0.00 75 103 112 1 0 0-0-0 3-3-0 7 10 0 108 Siena 0.00 0.00 0.00 94 100 97 1 0 0-0-0 1-5-0 5 12 0 109 St. Bonaventure 0.00 0.00 0.00 115 104 80 0 0 0-1-0 0-6-0 0 17 0 110 Stetson 0.00 0.00 0.00 101 106 105 0 0 0-1-0 2-4-0 4 13 0 111 Vanderbilt 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 64 70 1 0 0-1-0 1-5-0 8 9 0 112 Vermont 0.00 0.00 0.00 84 94 81 0 1 0-2-0 2-4-0 6 11 0 113 Virginia Commonwealt 0.00 0.00 0.00 79 76 52 3 2 0-1-0 3-3-0 7 11 0 114 William & Mary 0.00 0.00 0.00 99 71 47 1 1 0-4-0 0-5-0 4 12 0 115 Wofford 0.00 0.00 0.00 110 113 106 0 0 0-1-0 2-4-0 2 15 0 116 Yale 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 32 32 1 2 0-3-0 0-5-0 7 8 0