Last year s predictions were 12 out of 12 or `100%.
 There were no adjustments made to the algorithm.
 Predictions for the past two years were 23/24 or 96%.
 
 
 

Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division II Championship Tournament

The format for the NCAA Division II Women s Lacrosse Championship is a twelve-team, single-elimination tournament. Teams must play a minimum of 10 games in-region and have at least a .500 record, and regular-season games tied after regulation must be decided in overtime. Each of the four regions will have three teams, and teams will be paired within region. The prediction is based on the rankings of region record, division record, record against teams with a 50% winning record and sos in-region. See NCAA for more info. Primary Factors for Selecting Teams [1] In-region Division II won-lost results [2] Overall division II won-lost results [3] Strength of schedule in-region [-] Division II Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Results vs. teams with records above .500 [-] Performance indicator (not defined by NCAA) Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. ATLANTIC Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 West Chester 95.82 1 1 1 18 16 0 0 19 0 0 2 East Stroudsburg 60.74 2 16 11 26 12 2 0 13 3 0 3 Mercyhurst 45.86 4 37 26 4 11 4 0 13 6 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 Slippery Rock 42.78 7 31 23 16 8 5 0 13 5 0 5 Lock Haven 34.49 6 37 36 12 11 5 0 13 6 0 6 Georgian Court 20.30 3 37 21 64 12 4 0 13 6 0 7 Bloomsburg 0.00 11 57 23 40 8 7 0 10 8 0 8 Indiana (PA) 0.00 10 51 50 51 7 6 0 9 6 0 9 Millersville 0.00 12 52 50 65 7 7 0 10 7 0 10 Chestnut Hill 0.00 5 46 56 80 9 4 0 12 7 0 11 Shippensburg 0.00 14 81 50 45 6 9 0 7 10 0 12 Thomas Jefferson 0.00 8 62 65 71 8 6 0 9 8 0 13 Kutztown 0.00 16 96 61 44 6 10 0 6 11 0 14 Seton Hill 0.00 17 102 82 20 4 8 0 5 11 0 15 Gannon 0.00 18 106 77 56 3 9 0 4 10 0 16 Dominican 0.00 13 88 84 84 5 6 0 6 10 0 17 Edinboro 0.00 21 117 80 46 2 12 0 3 13 0 18 Caldwell 0.00 9 84 84 98 6 5 0 6 9 0 19 Wilmington 0.00 15 81 84 99 5 8 0 7 10 0 20 Holy Family 0.00 19 114 84 106 3 10 0 3 11 0 21 Nyack 0.00 20 117 84 109 2 7 0 3 13 0 22 Post 0.00 22 130 84 100 1 9 0 2 15 0 23 Felician 0.00 23 136 84 131 0 9 0 0 13 0 EAST Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Le Moyne 82.26 2 4 5 6 16 1 0 19 1 0 2 Adelphi 79.33 1 9 7 1 17 1 0 18 2 0 3 LIU Post 38.33 3 25 18 7 14 3 0 14 5 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 Mercy 34.63 4 18 16 21 12 3 0 14 4 0 5 Pace 25.30 5 25 27 15 12 4 0 14 5 0 6 Merrimack 20.81 6 25 27 23 14 5 0 14 5 0 7 NYIT 12.90 7 25 23 47 9 4 0 14 5 0 8 New Haven 6.45 8 41 44 34 12 6 0 12 6 0 9 Bentley 0.00 9 56 44 25 9 7 0 9 7 0 10 Saint Anselm 0.00 13 78 50 13 6 9 0 8 10 0 11 Molloy 0.00 10 53 56 43 7 6 0 11 8 0 12 Assumption 0.00 12 62 75 32 6 8 0 9 8 0 13 Roberts Wesleyan 0.00 15 64 59 57 3 7 0 9 9 0 14 Stonehill 0.00 11 71 77 37 8 9 0 8 9 0 15 Franklin Pierce 0.00 14 84 65 66 5 9 0 6 9 0 16 Bridgeport 0.00 15 84 65 83 3 7 0 6 9 0 17 S. New Hampshire 0.00 19 112 84 31 3 13 0 4 13 0 18 Southern Connecticut 0.00 18 110 84 35 3 12 0 4 12 0 19 St. Thomas Aquinas 0.00 17 88 84 69 3 10 0 6 10 0 20 American Internation 0.00 21 121 84 49 2 13 0 3 14 0 21 Saint Michael's 0.00 20 127 84 52 2 12 0 2 13 0 22 Queens (NY) 0.00 22 102 84 81 1 10 0 5 11 0 23 University of DC 0.00 23 134 84 111 0 8 0 1 13 0 MIDWEST Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Lindenwood 98.52 0 1 1 19 0 0 0 19 0 0 2 Regis (CO) 74.54 0 17 14 2 0 0 0 15 4 0 3 Indianapolis 46.55 0 13 17 28 0 0 0 16 3 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 Lake Erie 34.83 0 12 12 48 0 0 0 14 2 0 5 Colorado Mesa 23.03 0 23 27 39 0 0 0 12 4 0 6 Grand Valley State 22.52 0 31 40 17 0 0 0 13 5 0 7 Findlay 0.00 0 15 27 60 0 0 0 15 3 0 8 Tiffin 0.00 0 49 42 8 0 0 0 11 7 0 9 UVa-Wise 0.00 0 18 27 73 0 0 0 14 4 0 10 McKendree 0.00 0 70 62 10 0 0 0 9 10 0 11 Fort Lewis 0.00 0 64 65 36 0 0 0 7 7 0 12 Walsh 0.00 0 49 65 58 0 0 0 11 7 0 13 Rockhurst 0.00 0 59 65 85 0 0 0 8 7 0 14 Concordia-St. Paul 0.00 0 79 84 53 0 0 0 7 9 0 15 Charleston 0.00 0 79 56 82 0 0 0 7 9 0 16 CSU-Pueblo 0.00 0 107 82 24 0 0 0 4 11 0 17 Westminster 0.00 0 76 65 79 0 0 0 6 7 0 18 Wheeling Jesuit 0.00 0 88 77 59 0 0 0 6 10 0 19 Shepherd 0.00 0 59 84 95 0 0 0 8 7 0 20 Colo.-Colorado Sprin 0.00 0 81 84 75 0 0 0 7 10 0 21 Alderson Broaddus 0.00 0 99 84 55 0 0 0 6 12 0 22 Oklahoma Baptist 0.00 0 102 50 97 0 0 0 5 11 0 23 Northern Michigan 0.00 0 127 84 54 0 0 0 2 13 0 24 Adams State 0.00 0 113 84 87 0 0 0 3 10 0 25 Ursuline 0.00 0 96 84 112 0 0 0 6 11 0 26 West Virginia Wesley 0.00 0 87 84 123 0 0 0 5 8 1 27 Davis & Elkins 0.00 0 117 84 89 0 0 0 3 13 0 28 Ohio Valley 0.00 0 123 84 91 0 0 0 2 12 0 29 Notre Dame (OH) 0.00 0 114 84 130 0 0 0 3 11 0 SOUTH Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Florida Tech 67.16 0 11 8 9 0 0 0 16 2 0 2 Rollins 59.99 0 18 12 3 0 0 0 14 4 0 3 Limestone 47.60 0 10 9 27 0 0 0 17 2 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 Florida Southern 46.67 0 4 4 41 0 0 0 19 1 0 5 Young Harris 36.71 0 25 20 11 0 0 0 14 5 0 6 Tampa 19.82 0 41 27 14 0 0 0 12 6 0 7 Queens (Charlotte) 13.13 0 53 40 5 0 0 0 11 8 0 8 Saint Leo 8.91 0 44 42 30 0 0 0 11 6 0 9 Belmont Abbey 0.00 0 35 36 67 0 0 0 14 6 0 10 Lenoir-Rhyne 0.00 0 64 50 22 0 0 0 9 9 0 11 Catawba 0.00 0 53 44 42 0 0 0 11 8 0 12 Pfeiffer 0.00 0 8 84 61 0 0 0 11 1 0 13 Mount Olive 0.00 0 25 27 118 0 0 0 14 5 0 14 North Greenville 0.00 0 37 47 92 0 0 0 13 6 0 15 Alabama-Huntsville 0.00 0 31 38 124 0 0 0 13 5 0 16 Embry-Riddle 0.00 0 88 80 29 0 0 0 6 10 0 17 Wingate 0.00 0 101 64 38 0 0 0 6 13 0 18 Lee 0.00 0 64 84 72 0 0 0 9 9 0 19 Lincoln Memorial 0.00 0 64 65 93 0 0 0 8 8 0 20 Tusculum 0.00 0 96 59 63 0 0 0 6 11 0 21 Montevallo 0.00 0 71 75 114 0 0 0 8 9 0 22 Chowan 0.00 0 64 84 119 0 0 0 8 8 0 23 Emmanuel (GA) 0.00 0 73 84 121 0 0 0 7 8 0 24 Coker 0.00 0 107 84 94 0 0 0 4 11 0 25 Barton 0.00 0 99 84 105 0 0 0 5 10 0 26 Converse 0.00 0 92 84 117 0 0 0 7 12 0 27 Palm Beach Atlantic 0.00 0 135 84 68 0 0 0 1 14 0 28 Newberry 0.00 0 122 84 103 0 0 0 3 15 0 29 Mars Hill 0.00 0 116 84 127 0 0 0 3 12 0 30 Shorter 0.00 0 136 84 107 0 0 0 0 10 0 31 Erskine 0.00 0 123 84 128 0 0 0 2 12 0 32 Lees-McRae 0.00 0 132 84 122 0 0 0 1 12 0